Who Could Replace Boris Johnson As U.K. Prime Minister?

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s premiership continues to hang in the balance after Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned on Tuesday—joined by at least 30 other lawmakers and government officials in the 24 hours since.

The resignations followed the revelation that Johnson had known that a Conservative lawmaker, Chris Pincher, was being investigated for allegations of sexual misconduct in 2019 before he was appointed to a senior role responsible for party discipline. Pincher resigned last week after facing fresh accusations that he groped two men at a work event on June 29.
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The revelations are the latest in a string of scandals surrounding the beleaguered British leader, after an official investigation uncovered a series of illegal parties at his Downing Street office that took place during nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns. Although Johnson survived a subsequent no-confidence vote on June 6, more than 40% of Conservative lawmakers declared they had lost confidence in his ability to govern the country.

Bookmakers are already speculating over who could replace Johnson in the event of his departure. Here, the possible scenarios facing Johnson, and his likely successors:

Rishi Sunak

According to the averages of various bookmakers’ predictions, Sunak is one of the favorites to take over the British premiership, at 9/2. Johnson plucked former hedge-fund manager Sunak from relative political obscurity when he appointed him as finance minister, known as chancellor of the exchequer in the U.K., in February 2020. His first full cabinet role was dominated by the fallout from the pandemic—the tens of billions of pounds of government support Sunak distributed to workers and businesses alike once made him the clear favorite to succeed Johnson.

Despite having to increase public spending in response to the global health crisis, Sunak is a low-tax, small-state conservative. Since being in the public eye, Sunak has cultivated a savvy social media presence and polished persona that sets him apart from older, traditional wings of the Conservative party. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, he supported the Leave campaign.

Sunak’s popularity has waned in recent months. The ex-finance minister was criticized for being slow to react to the cost-of-living crisis affecting Britons, and controversy over his millionaire wife’s non-domicile tax status has further alienated voters.

Yet, by resigning minutes after Javid, Sunak can argue that he prioritized his party over any loyalty to Johnson.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt, the most popular contender not to hold a cabinet position, is another favorite to succeed Johnson at 9/2. The former defense secretary is a staunch supporter of Brexit but has been vocal in her criticism of Johnson over the “partygate” scandal.

Currently an international trade minister, Mordaunt has spearheaded efforts to establish commerce deals with U.S. states, and is considered a strong speaker in parliament. She is currently the only female lawmaker who is in the Royal Navy reserves.

She is popular among Conservative loyalists—a poll by right-wing blog Conservative Home found she was the second favorite choice of grassroots party members.

Sajid Javid

With odds of 7/1, former health secretary Javid has held several senior roles within cabinet and vied for party leadership in 2019. He previously held Sunak’s former position as Johnson’s finance minister, but resigned in 2020 after refusing to fire some of his most senior aides. He was also home secretary under Former Prime Minister Theresa May.

Javid is a renowned Thatcherite—a portrait of the Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher reportedly hangs on his office wall—and a fan of American philosopher and writer Ayn Rand’s views around free market capitalism, individualism, and small-state government.

Javid returned to cabinet as health secretary in June 2021, shifting the government’s approach to COVID-19 away from mass restrictions and towards individual responsibility.

Liz Truss

Foreign secretary Liz Truss has long been tipped as a potential future leader of the Conservative party, having won support among the party grassroots for her ardent Brexit support while a cabinet member and tongue-in-cheek social media presence. Bookmakers put her on 9/1 odds. In her current role, she has been a prominent figure in the U.K.’s response to the Russian war in Ukraine and coordinated post-Brexit talks with the European Union.

Although Truss was quick to display her loyalty to Johnson following Sunak and Javid’s resignations, she has for months been laying the groundwork for a future leadership contest, hosting “Fizz with Liz” drinks parties for Conservative lawmakers and inviting comparisons with Margaret Thatcher.

Despite her left-wing upbringing and foray into student politics as a centrist Liberal Democrat, Truss has since pivoted to champion small-state, conservative values.

Ben Wallace

Close behind Truss on 8/1, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has experienced a recent surge in popularity thanks to his approach to the Russian war in Ukraine—he topped the recent Conservative Home poll of potential Tory leaders.

A former army captain, Wallace has mostly stayed out of the limelight as a junior minister for former leaders David Cameron and May. While he displayed his loyalty to Johnson by arriving alongside the leader at last month’s no-confidence vote, he so far has kept himself free from scandal.

Jeremy Hunt

Former health and foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt lost out on the Conservative leadership to Johnson in 2019, and has since cast himself as the strait-laced antidote to the beleaguered prime minister. Hunt aligns himself more closely with the center of the Conservative party, having campaigned in support of Remain in the Brexit referendum.

He has been a vocal critic of Johnson’s handling of the pandemic and the “partygate” scandal.

Nadhim Zahawi

Relative political newcomer Nadhim Zahawi, who has odds of 12/1, first gained popularity as vaccines minister, overseeing the U.K.’s successful rollout of COVID-19 shots. His loyalty to Johnson has paid off—Zahawi was promoted to education secretary in September and now, following Sunak’s resignation on Tuesday, to finance minister. He backed Brexit in 2016.

Zahawi came to the U.K. as a child refugee from Iraq, fleeing Saddam Hussein’s regime. Although he has kept a relatively low profile in recent years, in 2013 he admitted to using taxpayers money for his heating bills at his stables, and in 2017 The Guardian revealed he had failed to declare his connection to two companies based in a tax haven.

Priti Patel

Home Secretary Priti Patel is a wildcard candidate to replace Johnson, with odds of 33/1. Patel has established a reputation for her hardline stance on immigration, having secured the roundly criticized deal to send refugees entering the U.K. to Rwanda.

The daughter of Indian migrants from Uganda, Patel famously admitted in 2020 that her own parents wouldn’t have been allowed into the U.K. if they had been subjected to her points-based immigration policy.

How could Johnson go?

Although Johnson is facing mounting pressure to resign, bookmakers predict he will stay until 2023, a year before the next general election is scheduled. Johnson has signaled his intention to fight on as leader. “I’m going to keep going,” he said in a parliamentary session on Wednesday.

Under Tory party rules, Johnson is safe from a leadership challenge for another year, after winning last month’s no-confidence vote by 211 votes to 148. But the official caucus for the Conservative backbenchers, known as the 1922 Committee, may try to change party rules. The committee meets today and gets its first opportunity to change the rules in a week’s time. Theoretically, another vote to oust Johnson could take place before lawmakers’ summer break begins on July 21.

If this option fails, Johnson’s opponents across the political aisle would instead be left to hope for a snap general election, should Johnson call one in a bid to fend off an internal party challenge. On Tuesday, Labour leader Keir Starmer backed the possibility of a snap election. “We need a fresh start for Britain. We need a change of government,” he said. But although polls show that 66% of the British public disapprove of Johnson, neither is Starmer hugely popular with voters.

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